Five-year-old ship prices are back to the same level of spring 2000, according to the latest market overview recently presented by Italian broking house Banchero Costa.
The market value of 2012-built suezmax tankers stands at around $40m, while similar aged MR2 tankers are valued at slightly above $20m and panamax bulk carriers at $18m.
Enrico Paglia, research manager at Banchero Costa, said that in the dry bulk market: “Demolitions dropped after the recovery, but should remain strong especially when ballast water treatment systems will be mandatory”. He also underlined that “a large part of the fleet built during the ‘booming years’ will approach the third special survey in a few years” and that “higher secondhand prices drive fresh newbuilding orders”.
The Banchero Costa’s analyst considerations on the crude oil market focused on the “good demolition potential given the extremely limited demolitions level seen during the last three years”.
As for the new investments Paglia defined newbuilding orders “moderating, but given the huge orderbook still excessive”.
In the product tankers segment the broker reckoned an orderbook drop is expected in 2017 for MRs and in 2018 for LRs while transport demand growth is expected to accelerate due to the reorganisation of refining capacity. US, India and Middle East Gulf exports are seen growing while Chinese exports will probably drop due to quotas and taxes.
“Newbuilding orders virtually halted and little demolition over the last two years offers good potential for further scrap in the future,” concluded the Genoa-based analyst.