Consolidation, corporatisation and the squeezing out of smaller family-run companies will cause shipping to become more like the airline industry within the next 10 to 15 years, DNB Bank’s head of shipping coverage in Oslo said today.
Bern Blikstad told press in London that banks such as his own are targeting “top-tier” clients, which are large shipping companies with good liquidity, often publically listed entities with transparent accounting practices that are subject to regulatory compliance.
This means owners of small fleets are losing out, and could face extinction as company consolidation gathers pace in the coming years.
“[Consolidation] is something we think will happen and needs to happen,” Blikstad said. “There are synergies in finance and there are synergies in operations.”
“In Norway, we no longer have any owners of one or two vessels – they’ve all sold up,” he explained.
As the discussion turned to the future of ship finance, Blikstad had an unusual prediction for one of Norway’s most important shipping trades.
“We will see more capital coming into the offshore market before the general market expects,” he said.
However, the general outlook for lending to shipping companies is more subdued, Blikstad said: “The days when bank were financing 60% to 70% of the finance structure will take a while to come back.”
Certainly, the days of private-equity investment in shipping are over, which Blikstad put down to the firms’ underestimation of the complexity of operating ships and their inability to secure the right personnel to run the companies.
