2018 looks set to be another “painful” period for tanker owners, with a continued wave of new tonnage and potentially challenging demand conditions, Gibson Shipbrokers has warned in its most recent weekly report.
On the supply side, 40m dwt of crude and product tankers (over 25,000 dwt) are due for delivery, compared to the 35.5m dwt delivered in 2017, potentially making 2018 the busiest delivery year since 2010.
Gibson noted however that delays are expected to be a factor in reducing the volume of tonnage entering the market this year.
In 2017, slippage across the crude sector fell relative to 2016. Actual deliveries for VLCCs fell just 11% below the scheduled number, whilst suezmax slippage was somewhat higher at 21%. However, delivery delays in the product tanker sector, which had a more challenging year relative to the crude market, ran significantly higher. In the crossover aframax/LR2 sector deliveries fell 27% below the scheduled number, whilst LR1 slippage rose to 38%. MRs, which didn’t fare as badly in the spot market as the larger product carriers, saw slippage of just over 28%.
“Given the anticipated fundamentals for 2018, delivery delays are expected to remain a feature, and for the crude sector in particular, and could increase relative to 2017. However, the same fundamentals are likely to encourage scrapping activity; which, when coupled with slippage, could help offset some of the supply growth for 2018,” Gibson suggested.