The number of capesize vessels currently in Brazil or estimated to arrive in Brazilian waters over the next 30 days is now around 125, up almost 100% in one month, according to research from Cleaves Securities.
When Brazilian miner Vale’s iron ore exports started to normalise a month ago, the tonnage list was too thin in the Atlantic basin, sparking July’s freight rate rally.
“Now, with around 125 Capesizes in or bound for Brazil over the next 30 days, we expect spot rates to ease off in the short term,” Cleaves stated in a report, predicting a Q3 cape spot rate average of around $20,000 a day.
Concurrent with the rapid increase in capes bound for Brazil, the number of capes bound for Australia has fallen, something Cleaves suggested could help support spot rates in the Pacific region.
