Greater China

Cape rates of $9,000 a day in 2013: BIMCO

Copenhagen: BIMCO’s latest forecasts for dry bulk prospects next year suggests China’s hunger for iron ore and coal will be stronger.

BIMCO's chief shipping analyst Peter Sand noted: "As we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61m tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65m tons of iron ore monthly.

BIMCO’s 2012 estimate is 730m tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expects that China will increase imports to 785m tons, up 7.5% year-on-year.

Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 capesize vessels, with work for another 49 capesize vessels in 2013, BIMCO estimated.

“As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that capesize earnings should stay above an average of US$9,000 per day in 2013,” BIMCO projected.

Looking ahead, BIMCO suggested that in the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector.  [06/12/12]

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