Hong Kong: He is one of container shipping’s best known soothsayers, one who does not mind being controversial, which suits his new found independence running his own site, iamananalyst.com.
Charles De Trenck has been for many a year been the man boxlines feared most when announcing their financial results, his name so well known, like his reputation for fearless commentary.
In today’s Maritime CEO interview the seasoned analyst blasts current container coverage.
Even in years prior, while still an equity analyst, De Trenck, by his own admission, spent as much time as possible ignoring rates.
“I believe that shipping news organizations should ban all rate announcements from shipping lines as material for news stories,” he tells this site, which to this day has mercifully adhered to the new De Trenck doctrine. “No official announcements,” he adds, “from rate setting organisations. Period. Only third party objective benchmarking should be allowed, and preferably more diversity be added there as well.”
De Trenck maintains that there is not an objective adjustment process that reflects rates ex-bunker, and even ex-THC effects. “The lack of properly reflecting topline revenue information has been the most important act of misleading industry outsiders,” he says, adding: “Even – or especially – banks were at times willing participants in the deception.”
Going forward, De Trenck urges that renewed attempts to focus on financial metrics should be given top priority.
There are some new “standard bearers” in liner research, De Trenck says, notably Alphaliner and SeaIntel.
“On the equity research side, we have remained in a situation of analyst overcapacity – too many analysts chasing the same information for the same investor base,” De Trenck reckons.
Looking forward, and back to lessons learned from asset trading, De Trenck says liners have to invest in low cost capacity for a lower growth developed world.
“At the same time we have collectively learned that establishing a greener footprint pays,” he maintains.
De Trenck has focused on transport, China and global macro research over the last 20 years, mostly from Hong Kong. His career spans UBS, Credit Suisse, Salomon Smith Barney and Citi, where he garnered plenty of garlands as the top transport analyst around.
Ditching the banks, he left Citi in 2008 to found Transport Trackers, and has for the past few months be running the independent I Am An Analyst site, as well as taking on the duties of being Maritime CEO magazine’s point man for container coverage. The first issue of the magazine is due out in early June. [25/04/13]
