OffshoreRenewables

Demand for ocean space to grow five-fold by 2050

The amount of ocean space occupied by installations will grow five-fold by 2050, according to DNV’s Spatial Competition Forecast. This will be driven by offshore wind, which will account for 80% of stationary infrastructure at sea by the midcentury, followed by aquaculture with 13% and oil and gas accounting for 5%.

The class society highlighted the North Sea as the area in Europe which will see the greatest competition due to a large number of shipping lanes and ports, as well as the intense presence of the fishing, aquaculture, oil and gas and wind industries. Installations for offshore energy and food production will cover 23% of the area between 2-50 km from shore in water depths less than 50 m, based on DNV’s Spatial Competition Index.

Greater China will account for a third of all global infrastructure built at sea by 2050, mainly due to the sharp increase in offshore wind, which will make up 13% of the region’s electricity production. The Indian Subcontinent sees the strongest growth in area covered by stationary infrastructure, as the region experiences fast offshore wind development requiring vast areas.

Globally, the area occupied by fixed offshore wind will grow from about 9,000 sq km today to about 242,000 sq km by mid-century. Floating offshore wind will grow from a low 15 sq km today to more than 33,000 sq km by 2050.

“The ocean is crucial for the production of sustainable food and energy, but at the same time we must tread carefully as many ocean ecosystems are already under huge stress,” said Bente Pretlove, Ocean Space programme director at DNV. “This report underscores the urgent need to balance protection, productivity, and social development objectives for a sustainable blue economy. Those developers that are most adept at early stakeholder engagement, spatial efficiency, flexible coexistence, and pursuit of sustainability are likely to be most competitive. Coexistence is essential for the sustainable growth of the blue economy.”

DNV’s Spatial Competition Forecast builds on the findings of the previously published Ocean’s Future to 2050. The results are based on what DNV forecasts to be the most likely energy mix in 2050, not what is required to reach net zero.

In Norway, DNV is spearheading a project that aims to establish a common knowledge basis among ocean stakeholders by introducing new ways of generating scenarios for co-existence in marine spatial planning and development projects in the ocean industries. The Utsira Nord offshore wind licensing area will act as one of the case studies.

Adis Ajdin

Adis is an experienced news reporter with a background in finance, media and education. He has written across the spectrum of offshore energy and ocean industries for many years and is a member of International Federation of Journalists. Previously he had written for Navingo media group titles including Offshore Energy, Subsea World News and Marine Energy.
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