Norwegian class society DNV has updated its maritime forecast to 2050, unveiling a new decarbonisation stairway model.
The 80-page report aims to assist an industry facing the dual challenge of increasingly stringent climate change targets and regulations coupled with uncertainty over future fuel choices, technology, and supply.
It is, according to DNV Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, “the grand challenge of our time”.
DNV has provided an updated framework for managing carbon risk in newbuilding designs, a techno-economic evaluation of fuel strategies, and the vessel design implications of those chosen approaches. The decarbonisation stairway is introduced to show how individual owners can adapt to stay below the required GHG emission trajectories.
Less than 1% of ships currently in operation use alternative fuels
Linda Sigrid Hammer, the report’s lead author, said: “With between 1,000 and 2,000 ships expected to be ordered annually through 2030, there’s a real need for informed decisions that consider a diverse array of factors; from cost, to fuel storage and propulsion, through to flexibility in design, strategic approach, and fuel ready solutions. And of course, all of this is underpinned by the need for safety.
“Our revised framework allows for detailed assessments, providing support and expertise to mitigate the risks and uncertainties facing owners. The carbon neutral destination for the industry is clear, but the pathway is not. This report will help owners chart their way forwards.”
The report finds that the maritime energy transition is already gaining momentum, with around 12% of newbuilds currently ordered with alternative fuel systems. This is double the 6% revealed by DNV’s 2019 Maritime Forecast report. However, less than 1% of ships currently in operation use alternative fuels, with the huge majority plying short-sea routes.
DNV forecasts that total capex for onboard technology investments required to satisfy IMO decarbonisation ambitions will range from $250bn to $800bn dependent on fleet size between 2020 and 2050.
Splash has been through the 80-page report with three key charts highlighted below. The full report can be accessed here.