A leading name in ship finance circles has said natural shipping cyclicality has been disturbed by several factors, principally shipyards’ capability to churn out ships faster, but the industry is slowly moving back to more normal ship cycles.
Henriette Brent-Petersen, head of shipping and offshore research at DVB bank, has presented a series of videos looking at the various shipping sectors and megatrends within the industry.
Brent-Petersen argued that continued overcapacity in shipping is down largely to the fact that where as before the supercycle last decade yards took two and a half years from contracting to build a ship, now it tends to be just 18 months. While she applauded capacity cutting measures like China’s shipyard white list Brent-Petersen warned any shipbuilding cuts would take years to trickle down to effect shipping cycles.
Ship cycles have shortened from around seven years to just four years, Brent-Petersen outlined.
Dagfinn Lunde, Splash’s finance columnist and a 13-year veteran at DVB, holds a similar view to Brent-Petersen. In a forthcoming column, he warns that oversupply is here to stay, down in no small part to the fact that cycles are shorter as yards deliver ships quicker.
DVB’s Brent-Petersen went on to discuss the various shipping sectors in greater depth. Access the videos here.