AsiaDry Cargo

India set to be largest driver of global seaborne coking coal demand growth this year

New Delhi: At Coaltrans India yesterday, Wood Mackenzie said India will be central to supporting growth in the global seaborne metallurgical coal market this year, with a 2m tonnes rise in imports on the cards. Overall however, global growth in the seaborne market will remain broadly subdued thanks to expectations for a further retreat in Chinese imports of 4-5m tonnes. Following on from last year, China’s appetite for imports has waned thanks to a combination of a slowing steel sector, lower coke prices and the continued uncertainty regarding trace element standards being enforced on met coal imports.

Ronnie Cecil, principal steel analyst for Wood Mackenzie, said, “In 2015, the combined net increase in global seaborne demand will just about be sufficient to offset the negative China impact this year. India offers the main ray of hope with steel production growth on course to advance 4% this year boosting demand for imported met coal.”

Looking further ahead, India is expected to remain a key driver of global met coal trade growth over both the medium and long term. Of the 123m tonnes rise in global trade projected by Wood Mackenzie out to 2035, India is expected to account for 40% of this, with China contributing 28%. Cecil said, “We expect rising Indian demand to overtake Japan – currently the biggest importer – in 2025 before reaching parity with China by 2035. This begs the question of whether India will be the next China.”


Sam Chambers

Starting out with the Informa Group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine as well as East Asia Editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he pursued a freelance career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia Editor at Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and The International Herald Tribune.
Back to top button