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Maersk warns global box volumes could slide 2.5% this year

From $30.9bn to somewhere between $2bn to $5bn. That is how Maersk, widely seen as bellwether for the container shipping industry, sees its net profit going from last year to this.

The Danish shipping giant revealed its Q4 and full-year 2022 results today, nailing a record annual revenue of $81.5bn and net profit of $30.9bn.

“While the slow-down of the global economy will lead to a softer market in particular in Ocean, Maersk will continue to pursue the growth opportunities within the Logistics and Terminals businesses,” the company stated, giving a full year EBIT guidance for 2023 in the region of $2bn to $5bn.

“As we enter a year with challenging macro-outlook and new types of uncertainties for our customers, we are determined to speed up our business transformation and increase our operational excellence to seize the unique opportunities in front of us,” said Vincent Clerc, the new CEO of A.P. Moller – Maersk.

Maersk is expecting global ocean container market growth to be in a range of -2.5% to +0.5% this year.

“Container freight rates have fallen materially over the past six months and are hovering at 2020 lows across several routes,” Jefferies noted in a recent note to clients, calling for a “major supply response” to right-size the market.

Recent quarterly announcements from global liners Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) show the changed fortunes in container shipping.

“The party is over,” Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told reporters at a briefing last Tuesday.

“Now we have to fight for every box again to get our ships full,” he said.

Japan’s ONE, meanwhile, recorded a 50% quarter-on-quarter drop in profits last week.

While much has been written about the declining spot rate environment, there is also now a record-breaking fall in long-term rates, according to Xeneta, a freight rate benchmarking platform.

Average long-term contracted rates dropped by 13.3% in January, Xeneta reported last week.

Xeneta CEO Patrik Berglund commented: “Global demand has fallen away, congestion has eased, equipment is available, and the macro-economic and geopolitical situations are, to say the least, complex.”

Sam Chambers

Starting out with the Informa Group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine as well as East Asia Editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he pursued a freelance career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia Editor at Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and The International Herald Tribune.
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