OPEC+ crude production will be 2m barrels a day higher by December this year compared to current production after the group decided yesterday to raise production by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August.
This increase will likely continue into next year until the entire 5.8m barrels of day of production currently withheld from the markets has been restored with OPEC+ set to re-evaluate the monthly increases at a meeting scheduled for December.
“The agreement is welcome news for tanker markets, especially with refinery throughout likely to be 3m b/d higher in q4 2021 versus the output in q2 2022,” tanker analysts at Braemar ACM suggested in a note to clients, adding: “Higher production is also likely to ease the need for crude stock drawdowns and be a catalyst for higher seaborne crude trade as refinery runs rise.”
Also commenting on the OPEC+ news, analysts at Jefferies suggested: “We believe this will provide the crude tanker shipping market the tailwinds necessary to slowly increase rates during 3Q20 and more meaningfully in 4Q21.”
