Singapore: At the turn of the year we invited readers to take part in our Future of Shipping Poll, a vote designed to look at pertinent issues effecting our industry in the coming five or six years. Readers were also invited to comment if they wanted to. The questions we posed clearly hit a nerve or two among the more than 1,200 people who gave their opinions.
On the back page of the latest issue of Maritime CEO magazine we provided edited highlights of the results, below we can reveal all the details. By each question, the results are presented in percentage terms, and a comment from a reader is included per question.
1. By 2020, which nation will be the largest owner by gross tonnage?
Greece 17%
Japan 6%
China 65%
Germany 3%
Another country 9%
“We will be moving away from family owned shipping companies to sovereign state shipowning/multinational commodity organisations owning shipping”
2. Has the era of European banks as the dominant force in ship finance passed for good?
Yes 54%
No 46%
“The Middle East (with Islamic financing options) and the Far East will take over this role”
3. Will private equity continue to play such a large role in shipping in the coming five years?
Yes 79%
No 21%
“A lot of P/E investments in shipping will struggle to achieve the quick and clean exits that P/E desires, so we may see a second wave of P/E ‘parcel passing of assets’, restructurings and consolidation in the next five years”
4. Have ship sizes for containerships plateaued?
Yes 60%
No 40%
“The mega containerships will possibly increase in size for a while, then fade like the ULCCs of the ‘70s”
5. Have ship sizes for bulkers plateaued?
Yes 66%
No 34%
“What will change are the category designations, as they have over time. So a handy will be a bigger handy down the line. Will the largest vessels get any bigger physically, no matter what they are called? I doubt it. Ports and cargo requirements would need to change first”
6. Which city is going to be the most vibrant international maritime centre in the coming five years?
London 13.4%
Singapore 57.73%
Shanghai 29.9%
Athens 2.06%
Hong Kong 5.15%
“Singapore will try to hold on to the title, but Shanghai has the hunger as well as the landmass to make it happen”
7. What will be the biggest headache for shipowners in the coming five years?
Overcapacity 42%
Finance 18%
Environmental Regulations 40%
“Shipowners in the past couple of years have jumped back into ordering ships with gusto. Whereas, pre-2008, we shot ourselves in the foot we have now taken the gun and are pointing it at our head”
8. Which sector will see its supply/demand balance return to equilibrium first?
Tankers 35.35%
Bulkers 39.39%
Containers 25.25%
“Tanker operators are more sensitive to market trends”
To see the results in a more visual format, click here to go straight to the right page on Maritime CEO.
Today, on Maritime CEO’s LinkedIn page we launch a new poll. Are crews better trained today than 20 years ago? To vote (and comment, if you like), click here. [17/03/14]
