The VLGC orderbook-to-fleet ratio has more than doubled since October last year with analysts questioning whether there will be enough demand growth to absorb the upcoming deluge of new gas ships.
Data from Cleaves Securities shows the VLGC orderbook now represents 23% of the existent fleet, up from 11% in October.
There have been 36 VLGC newbuildings ordered so far in 2021 compared to just three during the same time last year.
Cleaves said in a weekly report that it was “concerned” for VLGC earnings come 2023 and 2024 with 12-14% net fleet growth per annum versus 4-6% demand growth.
Cleaves is predicting the VLGC cycle will peak next year.