The extraordinary growth of the bauxite capesize trades out of Guinea has seen the route replace Brazil in terms of ton-days in the opening four months of the year, new data from broker BRS shows.
The Guinea to China bauxite trade route has now firmly entrenched itself as a “pivotal pillar” of capesize prospects, analysts at BRS noted, the growth in imports mirroring the People’s Republic’s remarkable ramp-up in electric vehicle output.
In the first four months of 2024, capesize shipments ex-Guinea to China stood at 333m tonnes, just 0.6m tonnes shy of the established fronthaul C14, Brazil to China route. More pertinently, when it comes to ton-days, the route has ousted the Brazil fronthaul route by 18.2%.
Chinese customs data shows that in April, China’s bauxite imports from Guinea, vital for the making of aluminum, stood at 10.5m tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 183%.
Bauxite, the only minor bulk cargo traded primarily on capes, represents roughly 13% of global cape volumes, up from 10% last year and 5% in 2020, according to analysis from Jefferies, an investment bank.
Guinea’s meteoric rise as a generator of bauxite for the Chinese market is set to be accompanied by its establishment as a major iron ore supplier for China in the coming years with the much hyped opening next year of the Simandou iron ore mine.
Bauxite was discussed at this month’s Geneva Dry and is set to have greater prominence at the next edition of the world’s premier commodities shipping conference.
“West African bauxite has become much more important and is very much interlinked with iron ore in terms of volumes,” William Fairclough, managing director of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, said at the iron ore session of the Splash-organised event.
