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Having spent the National Party Congress talking up the prospects of artificial intelligence and the digital economy, China’s government returned to form afterward and opened the credit spigots as wide as possible, flooding the property and industrial sectors with cheap cash and driving economic activity. Industrial production rose 7% in January and February, the fastest rate since covid. Retail sales grew 5.5%. Property investment fell 9% which feels like a win after 18 months of double-digit declines. Fixed asset investment rose 4.2% driven by state-owned enterprises. If it’s a case of full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes, dry cargo shipowners are happy to pay up and take the risk. Clarksons reported a record number of secondhand bulker sales this quarter and brokers across the market are looking forward to chunky bonuses as the financial year ends. In the freight markets, the Baltic Capesize Index stood at 3,482 on March 22, some 25% higher than a month earlier. The Panamax Index was up 33% at 2,165 points. The Supramax Index was 18% higher at 1,383 and the Handysize Index was up a lively 29% at 795 points. The Lunar New Year has been consigned to memory as traders press the overdrive button on Chinese raw material imports. Traders have pressed the overdrive button on Chinese raw material imports Per tonne freight rates on the Brazil to China iron ore voyage rose 11% in the 30 days to March 22, moving from $25.65 to a March 11 peak of $31.63 only to slip 10% to $28.54 on March 22. The time charter equivalents were $22,789 then $35,052 and $28,718. On the higher volume C5 route from Australia to China, the per tonne freight rate breached double figures on February 22 at $10.39, giving a TCE of $23,401. The peak came on March 4 at $14.68 / $45,093 per day, with the latest published rate being $12.17 per tonne / $32,670 per day. March capesize average earnings are a nicely profitable $33,079, up by half on $21,557 for February. The panamax freight markets have also enjoyed March, with average earnings on the Baltic Exchange P4TC measure being $16,833, up by 32% on $12,759 for February, while the P5 measure stood averages $18,169 for March, up 29% from 14,095 for February. For the record, the March averages are above the March 2023 levels but below those for 2022 and 2021…and below the March levels for 2003 to 2008, but there is a sense of euphoria in the market, that it’s a case of this is our time in the minds of those to0 young to have witnessed the all-time peak market that preceded the great recession. The star panamax performer for March was the transatlantic round voyage from northern Europe which added 52% for a 72 k dwt panamax between February 22 and March 22 to sit at $17,261. The most valuable route is currently P7, a 66,000 tonne grain cargo from Mississippi to Qingdao, rated at a lustrous $30,809 a day on March 22, 20% higher than a month previously. In the geared supramax bulker markets, a similar story developed with the global S10 average TCE being $15,212 on March 22, up 18% on $12,918 on February 22. The best performing route was from northern China to west Africa, which added 41% to hit $11,875 on March 22 after adding 46% in the previous 30 day period. On the long backhaul from west Africa to the east coast of south America to load grains for discharge in northern China, rates rose 32% in 30 days to $16,132 on March 22. Day rates on the round voyage from north China to Australia and back rose 26% from $13,156 to $16,588 having added 21% the previous month. Voyages from southern China via Indonesia to load coal for discharge on the Indian east coast were attracting TCEs of $16,521 on March 22, up 19% on the February 22 level. The H7TC handysize average for March to date is $13,842 compared to $10,8145 for February; that is the highest level since the $14,125 average for November 2022, adding credence to the concept that the bulker market cycle has reset and is back on the march in March. Again, the action has focused on China, with rates from northern China to south east Asia up 39% on the month to sit at $13,369 on March 22. On the north Pacific ocean round voyage rates are up 34% at $14,025 while on the south Pacific round voyage the increase is 37% with rates sitting pretty at $14,950 on March 22.

A sense of euphoria sweeps through dry bulk

Memories of 2003 to 2008 are being rekindled

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