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Last month we wrote that, “If it’s a case of full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes, dry cargo shipowners are happy to pay up and take the risk.” Any ship they bought in March will not have delivered yet, but will the buyers therefore be relieved not to have experienced the 16% fall in the Baltic Dry Index over the 30 days to April 19, or will they fear having bought into a market peak? The Baltic Capesize Index stood at 3,482 on March 22 (our last report date), some 25% higher than a month earlier. As of April 19, the latest available data, it was down 23% to 2,839 points. The Baltic Panamax Index was up 33% at 2,165 points but has since fallen 15% to 1,916 points. The Baltic Supramax Index was 18% higher at 1,383 and has bucked the trend by adding another 2% to sit at 1,394. Finally, the Baltic Handysize Index was up a lively 29% at 795 points last time we reported but has since fallen 6% to 741 points. The bulk carrier freight markets have not been awful, just a bit underwhelming in April after all the excitement of Q1 – just like the tanker freight markets. Per tonne freight rates on the Brazil to China iron ore voyage slipped below $30 on March 20 and continued to retreat to a low of $23.69 on April 2. Since then they have added nearly 10% to get to $27.04, giving a respectable TCE of $25,670 per day. On the higher volume C5 route from Australia to China, the per tonne freight rate peak came on March 4 at $14.68 / $45,093 per day and the low was $8.99 / $16,223 per day on April 10. Since then rates have accelerated to $11.88 / $31,087 as of April 19. The volatility seems to be merely the ebb and flow of trading, with brokers reporting that the bad weather in south China has caused some congestion which may explain the recent upturn in freight rates. Flood warnings covering over 120m people are in place in Guangdong and in some locations river shipping has been suspended. Average capesize TCE earnings in April to date are $20,522 after a Q1 average of $24,286. The bulk carrier freight markets have not been awful, just a bit underwhelming in April The panamax freight markets enjoyed most of March, with average earnings on the Baltic Exchange P4TC measure being $16,833 by the 22nd when we last reported but a slump ensued and the full month average was just $14,111. In April so far there has been some recovery to $14,365, though by April 19, all panamax voyage TCE daily hire rates were below their March 20 levels. Overall, demand for loading cargoes in the Atlantic has been stronger than the Pacific. For instance, grain rates from Mississippi to Qingdao were over $65 per tonne in mid-March, fell to $58.60 on April 10 and recovered to $61.33 by April 19. In TCE terms, rates fell from over $31,000 a day to a low of $25,600 a day and rebounded to $28,000 a day. On the transatlantic round voyage from Europe to North America, rates are down 18% on April 19 to $15,021 but had bottomed out at $10,695 on April 10. From Europe to Asia, rates were down 10% over 30 days to April 19 at $26,684 having bottomed out at $22,562 on April 11. In Asia, the North Pacific round voyage from North China lost 20% between March 20 and April 19 to sit at $14,100 via a low of $12,150 earlier in the month. The South Pacific round voyage from China via Indonesia for coal lost 15% to sit at $17,426 but had bottomed out at $14,680 on the 10th. Rates on the mammoth 105-day round voyage from Singapore to ECSA and back lost 13% over the month to land at $19,250 on April 19 having flirted with falling through the $17,000 level earlier in the month. In the geared supramax bulker markets, the big winners in percentage terms were ships coming open in North China to load cargoes for West Africa. Freight rates on this route were below $10,000 a day in mid-March but advanced 17% to exceed $12,000 as of April 19. But the most valuable route was from Cannakale to East Asia where rates stood at $26,275 on April 19, still down 5% over 30 days. In the Atlantic, round voyages from Europe to the US Gulf and back at the time of writing were attracting 9% more in daily TCE than a month earlier, with 58,000 dwt ships able to earn $13,900 a day for this voyage. Yet the worst performing route in April has been from the US Gulf to Northwest Europe on a 58,000 dwt supramax, where daily TCEs are down by 11% in a month to $14,050 a day. On the long backhaul from West Africa to the east coast of South America to load grains for discharge in northern China, rates on a 63,000 dwt ultramax rose 32% in 30 days to $16,132 on March 22 and added a further 6% in April to reach $17,129. The S10 average stands at $14,235 for April after a Q1 average of $12,991 in Q1 this year. It seems that there is momentum in the supra/ultramax market which is related to the grains and beans export matrix from the Americas. That momentum did not however filter down to the handysize bulker market. The HS7TC is down 6% over the period since our last report at a still, er, handy $13,334 a day. The weakest region has been Southeast Asia. Rates from Singapore to Australia and back are down 13% at $13,031 despite reported steady interest in Aussie mineral exports. Rates from North China to Southeast Asia are also down by 10% to $12,056. Whereas in Atlantic, the US Gulf-UK/Continent voyage, which has been dim for supras, rose 2% to $11,664 a day. The rest of the handysize matrix has been rangebound and flattish for April. Relative to the slump in capesize fortunes, the lack of volatility counts as a win.

Curse of the dry cargo optimist

A forgettable month for those in dry bulk

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