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Oil prices have been notably steady in the context of worsening geopolitical tension as Iran began direct attacks on Israel in March. WTI was $80.63 on March 22 and $83.14 on April 21 while, over the same period, the OPEC basket price increased from $85.56 to $87.35. There was a short, sub-5% spike in most benchmarks when Israel fired back at Iran but most traders say that a $5 to $10 risk premium feels about right unless Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ maintains its production cap, but could release up to 5m barrels per day if required, while Russia’s refined products export ban remains unsurprisingly in place while Ukraine continues to fire drones at Russian oil refineries and storage depots. Increasingly Russia is reported to be turning to crude oil exports, only some of which are sold via the price cap regime. The dark fleet of sanction-busting, uninsured tankers remains an environmental and political cause of anxiety but is surely responsible in part for the improved conditions in the legitimate tanker freight markets. The improvement in VLCC earnings to around $44,400 year to date basis Baltic Exchange data makes it the best year since 2015, with that year’s $49,600 per day average in sight for operators looking to experience the usual seasonal uplift in earnings in the second half of the year. April to date, however, has been slightly disappointing with earnings averaging $40,300, down from around $47,400 in each of February and March. On the benchmark TD3C voyage from the Middle East to China, average VLCC TCEs flipped from below $40,000 to over $60,000 and back again to $43,600 in March. China’s improving economy has not pushed freight rates higher as we mused last month they might. Indeed on the Middle East to China route, daily hire peaked at $63,250 on March 18 and then slid steadily to $35,750 by April 21. On the vogueish TD22 route from the US Gulf to China, rates have held steadier, peaking at $48,100 on March 18 and bottoming out at $39,000 on April 9 before recovering to $41,470 on April 21. VLCC earnings are having their best year since 2015 Average suezmax earnings have improved 14% in April to date compared to March: $42,650 compared to $37,500. On the West Africa to Europe voyage, rates rose to a peak of $52,770 on April 12 but slid to $39,400 on April 19. On the cross-Med voyage, the mid-April peak was lower, $40,700 on the April 10, with rates sitting at $38,800 on April 19. The aframax daily hire monthly average also improved in April, by a lesser 8%, to $42,950 compared to $39,730 in March. The main prompt for this was a 19% increase in eastbound transatlantic rates from the US Gulf, which sat at $40,397 on April 19. Meanwhile, there was a 17% increase in rates from the North Sea to the UK in the 30 days to April 19, by which time the daily hire was $42,288, with UK refineries picking up slack from the European refinery maintenance season. By comparison, daily hire from the North Sea to Germany rose by only 3% to $41,864, really only on the back of higher bunker prices. Cross-Med aframax hire improved 9% to a tasty $55,516 on April 19 due to shorter tonnage lists. Asian aframax markets weakened in April. Kuwait to Singapore fell 13% to just over $39,000 per day. Singapore to Australia rates lost 14% in the 30 days to April 19 to sit at $33,180. These are still acceptable numbers but underwhelming in the context of Q1 this year. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has continued to underperform its seasonal pattern, falling from 1,178 average for March to 1,152 in April to date. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index also slid in April to 962 points average to the 19th, compared to 1,104 average for March and 1,101 for February. Again, this is contrary to seasonal expectations. LR2 and LR1 earnings have rebounded from lows since mid-April but MR earnings have lagged, bottoming out only in recent days. Average LR2 TCEs on the benchmark TC1 route from the Middle East to Japan dropped by 41% in the 30 days to April 19, from an unsustainable $89,000 to a still tasty $52,100. On the mirror route to the UK/Cont, the fall was less pronounced, a mere 25% from a Suez-avoiding $106,500 to a better-coping $80,175 a day. Tanker markets may be starting to adjust to having to go around Africa to get into the Med from the Indian Ocean. One way to cope is to utilise the until recently unfashionable and shrinking LR1 fleet. Rates for these ships have rocketed in 2024 to date, outperforming earnings for both the larger LR2s and smaller LR1s. Piggy in the Middle has become Goldilocks. Sadly this did not stop earnings falling 27% on the Jubail-Rotterdam route to $57,570 on April 19 compared to $79,400 a month earlier. On TC5, the LR1 version of TC1 on the LR2s, rates slipped by 34% to $40,000 a day as of April 19. On the cross-Med route, rates were down 22% at $51,420 having been over $65,000 per day a month earlier. Do not be too disappointed though, because the LR1 global average year to date earnings of $49,450 a day is the highest on record, the previous high point being $36,770 a day average for 2008 when the entire global economy was red hot, and then burned down. In the Atlantic MR market, average daily hire fell 29% in the month to April 19 from $38,060 to $27,100. In the Pacific MR market, rates followed suit, falling 26% from $42,620 to $31,650. Once again, in most years these numbers would be highly satisfying but in the context of recent geopolitical disruption there is a tinge of regret that the earnings wave crest did not last longer.

The on/off risk premium for tankers

Every tanker segment analysed in what has been a rollercoaster month

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