⊗

The situation in the Middle East has affected bulker operations with shipbroker Braemar reporting that about 60 fewer capesize bulkers sailed from the Atlantic into the Indian Ocean via Suez in the four weeks to January 14 compared to the previous four weeks, while 60 capesizes sailed via the Cape of Good Hope in the latter period. Braemar said that this would reduce tonnage availability in the Atlantic. Freight rates on the Brazil to China route were volatile in January. Having ended 2023 at $23.86 per tonne / $20,500 per day, they peaked on January 4 at $29.49 per tonne / $31,750 per day, before sliding to a low of $19.56 per tonne / $12,750 per day on January 17. Since then they have moved between $20 and $24 with no clear direction. The volatility on Brazil-China iron ore freight has not been mirrored in Australia - China iron ore freight which has followed its typical seasonal pattern for January: a downhill slalom from $10.56 per tonne / $25,000 a day for a standard capesize at the start of the month to $7.93 per tonne / $11,400 per day by January 25. Lunar New Year is not until February 10 but brokers’ reports already read like holiday almanacs. With pandemic travel restrictions lifted, the Chinese are expected to make 9bn domestic journeys in February, so the holiday pause may be felt keenly this year. Broker reports already read like holiday almanacs The panamax markets have all slid in January. In the Atlantic, day rates from Europe to the Americas and back fell 21% from $21,150 to $15,100 between January 1 and 25. Rates from Europe to China fared better, falling only 6% from $26,300 to $24,250, while rates on the reverse route were down 11% from $15,500 to $13,900. Ships loading in Brazil and discharging in China could earn $16,800 on January 1 and $16,380 on January 25, a fall precipitated only by the change in bunker prices, with the dollar per tonne rate virtually unchanged. The naughty step remains inhabited by the South China to Indonesia round voyage which lost another 29% in January for kamsarmaxes, rates starting the year at a respectable $13,500 a day but skidding to a recidivist $9,600 by January 25. Grain cargoes from Mississippi to China could attract $60.60 per tonne as of January 1, a TCE of $28,5000 per day, but lost 3% by January 25 to reach $58.06 per tonne / $26,700 per day. In the geared supramax bulker markets, the January freight numbers have been red across the board with one exception, a round voyage from North China to Australia and back which has added 5% in January to date rising from $10,870 to $11,375. Meanwhile supras on the South China to Indonesia round voyage fared better than their bigger panamax sisters, losing 1% only over January to settle at $8,500 on January 25. The worst performing route for supramaxes has been North China to West Africa which fell 41% in January to $20,000 having started the year at $37,500. The Atlantic has not been exempt. Ships loading in the US Gulf for voyages via Panama to North China lost 31% of their TCE value this month, falling from $38,100 a day to $24,400. The TCE for a 52,000 dwt vessel sailing transatlantic to the US Gulf fell 31% to $12,825 in 25 days from January 1. January was just as hard for the handies. HS1, from Europe to the east coast of south America, fell 38% in January to $8,943 per day. Rates on the reverse route were down 34% to $15,00 a day. HS2 from Europe to the east coast of north America was down 37% to 10,464 per day while the reverse route TCE lost 31% to reach $16,171 on January 25. In the east, the North China to Southeast Asia route lost 10% to reach $8,250 while the North China Pacific round voyage lost 11% to reach $8,900. All in all, it could be worse, and owners have to bite down on the seasonal dip if they didn’t fix out for short periods in Q4 to bridge the seasonal dip. The Baltic Dry Index fell 28% from 2,093 points on January 2 to 1,499 points on January 25. The Baltic Capesize index is down by two thirds from its December peak but all the indices are showing a bit of a rally, or at least a halt to the losses, as January draws to a close. It remains to be seen how resilient they will be in February.

A typical January for dry bulk

The period between Christmas and Chinese New Year is rarely exciting for this particular shipping segment

⊗

To continue reading, please login below or subscribe here.

Read Next

Owners advised to cash in

Measuring shipping hubs

April 2024 Review

The on/off risk premium for tankers

Curse of the dry cargo optimist

Owners advised to cash in

Measuring shipping hubs

April 2024 Review

The on/off risk premium for tankers

Curse of the dry cargo optimist

Maritime CEO Forum Singapore

Maritime CEO Forum Monaco

Advertising

Press Releases

Splash

Splash Extra

Splash Special Reports