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The Lunar New Year holiday bit into chartering activity for the vital capesize segment, depressing the Baltic Dry Index from its January 1 level of 2,093 points to a low of 1,308 on January 17 since when it has risen 43% to 1,866 points. Charterers have been busy booking cargoes in all segments and on all routes with tonnage lists tightening, particularly in the Pacific. Per tonne freight rates on the Brazil to China iron ore voyage rose 18% in the first three weeks of February, hitting $26.18 on February 23, giving a time charter equivalent of $23,800. They had bottomed out at $19.56 per tonne / $12,750 per day on January 17. On the higher volume C5 route from Australia to China, the low was $7.93 per tonne / $11,400 per day on January 25. Since then, per tonne rates added a third to reach $11.21, giving a time charter equivalent of $26,079. It is early doors and there is everything still to play for Average capesize earnings in 2024 to date, basis the Baltic Exchange, are around $20,300 per day. Last year the average daily hire rate for capesizes for January and February was $6,400. In 2022 it was $19,100 and in 2021 it was $13,100. As analysts at Shipping Strategy wrote in a published note, “If the capesize market behaves according to its usual seasonal pattern this year, earnings in Jan and Feb should be around 50% of the annual average while the peak is usually in October at around 140% of the annual average. Should we get ready for average capesize earnings of $40,000 a day this year and a peak of $55,000?” Little wonder then that there has been so much sale and purchase activity in capesizes in February with as many as 10 capesize and newcastlemax ships changing hands. The panamax freight markets have not performed as well. A shortage of ships in the Pacific over Lunar New Year led to rising costs for Chinese charterers as they returned to their desks. Daily hire from North Asia to North America and back again has risen 43% in February to date to $13,879, but from a low of $9,678 on February 1. Ships sailing from Northeast Asia to North Europe enjoyed an 18% uplift in day rates from $5,090 to $5,988. Day rates from South China to Indonesia and back rose 7% over the month to $13,357 for a standard panamax but were up 44% to $14,931 for an 82,000 dwt kamsarmax. In the Atlantic, the story was less invigorating. Round voyage rates from Europe to North America and back were down 13% at $10,898 between February 1 and 23. Rates from Europe to China have been flat over the month at around $23,000 a day. The Baltic Panamax Index rose 7% to 1,595 points during February. In the geared supramax bulker markets, a similar story developed. The Baltic Exchange’s S10 time charter average was up 13% between February 1 and 23 to sit at $13,077. The best performing route was the South China – Indonesia round voyage, on which rates rose 46% on a 58,000 dwt supramax from $7,713 to $11,282. Day rates on the round voyage from North China to Australia and back rose 22% from $10,950 to $13,386. There was also an honourable mention for rates from north China to west Africa which added 20% in the first 23 days of February to reach $7,767 per day. However, rates from the US Gulf to the UK / Cont were down 6% to $16,350 over the first 23 days of February while other Atlantic voyages moved barely at all in a becalmed few weeks. February fortunes have been mixed in the Atlantic handysize market. On the positive side, HS1, from Europe to the east coast of south America, added 9% to reach $10,164 per day. Rates on the reverse route were down 3% to $14,728 a day. HS2 from Europe to the east coast of North America was up 6% to $11,586 per day while the reverse route TCE lost 28% to sit at $10,421 on February 23. Contrarily, in the east, the North China to Southeast Asia route added 21% to reach $9,850 while the North China Pacific round voyage rose by 45% to a year to date high of $14,000 on February 22. The Baltic Handysize Index rose 7% so far in February to 628 points. Most bulk carrier operators will be happy with how the first two months of the year have gone. They will know that February represents the seasonal low in each year and that markets traditionally rise from here to a peak in October. As the sporting pundits say, it is early doors and there is everything still to play for.

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