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The wave of newbuildings which will swell the liner fleet to over 30m teu has been building in 2024. To date this year, 140 container ships of almost 925,000 teu have delivered into service, adding to the year-end fleet of around 6,050 ships / 28.1m teu. Eight ships of 81,800 teu have delivered to Japanese listed lessor Financial Partners Group, while four ships / 66,500 teu have arrived for CCB Financial Leasing of China and three ships / 46,500 teu have delivered to China’s Bank of Communications, putting lessors in the top three positions so far this year, ahead of all the major liner companies, though the latter will be operating most of these newbuildings under financial or operating leases. The relentless schedule of deliveries means that the fleet is growing at the fastest rate ever, outpacing even 2008. The teu tsunami may peak this year as the orderbook is now 24% of the fleet compared to 30% at the end of Q1 2023. These new ships should be hammering freight rates. That they are not is a mix of strategy and chance. The liners do not co-ordinate strategy but have mostly followed similar plans, slowing ships down as much as possible to increase the numbers required to fulfil sailing schedules. Chance, because the effective closure of the Suez Canal route adds around 15 days to sailing times from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean or Northern Europe, while the Panama Canal’s auction solution to transits has not entirely done away with congestion. Add weather events like the rains in Guangdong in April, and accidents like that in Baltimore, and a few percent can be added to overall fleet utilisation. On slow steaming, Ralf Habben Jansen of Hapag Lloyd said in April that the industry would slow steam to save emissions and would thus need all these newbuildings. In March and April there was an expectation of increased freight rates into, out of, and through the Middle East due to the conflict there and the Iranian seizure of the MSC Aries in mid-April. This also led to an expectation of higher rates on voyages from East of Suez into Europe, for which the incentive increased to sail via the Cape of Good Hope after the MSC Aries capture. According to the Freightos Baltic Index, freight rates per feu from China to North Europe were stable at around $3,300 in the first half of March, adding 7% as Iran and Israel attacked each other directly, but then gave that 7% back, to return at $3,300 on April 19. Rates from China to the Mediterranean have been more volatile, yo-yoing from $4,500 on March 22 to $5,300 on March 29 but back to $4,300 plus change since then. US containerised imports rose 0.4% in March to 2.14m teu following a 6% increase in February. The growth trend is reverting to its pre-pandemic situation, that is to say slow but steady growth. US employment and wages continue to grow though it looks like interest rates may take longer to fall, leaving consumers still spending more on mortgages, rents and essentials. The transpacific shipping lanes are busy but spot rates are falling from their Q1 peaks as lines complete their redeployments and add additional ships to keep schedules intact. Rates from China to the US west coast stood at $2,911 per feu on April 19, down 22% on their March 22 level. Rates from China to the US east coast stood at $4,294 on April 19, down 19% from $5,284 on March 22. In the Atlantic, westbound freight rates from Europe to North America have edged up 4% over four weeks to $1,721 per feu, while eastbound rates were down 13% on April 19 at $407 per feu compared to $468 on March 22, spending the intervening three weeks squatting at $399 per feu. Meanwhile, as the European economy continued to grow only slowly, CMA CGM continued its strategy of vertical integration through the €4.85bn acquisition of Bolloré Logistics, minus its interests in French overseas territories.

Back to basics for containers

Strategy and chance are keeping liners in the black for now

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