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After US containerised imports were up 9% in January, they rose 6% in February to 2.14m teu, a higher number than most pundits expected. This points to continuing anti-gravitational energy in the US economy. Reflecting the recovery from the pandemic, the year-on-year growth in February’s imports was 23%, though the quantum remains below the best ever February of 2022 when it was 2.3m teu, and below the best month ever of May 2022 when imports stood proudly at 2.6m teu. Strong Chinese industrial numbers and strong US consumer numbers would be ideal but US consumer confidence has come off from 79.0 points in January to 76.9 in February and 76.5 in March. These are, we should remember, better than the numbers for all of 2023 and 2022. Moreover, US retail sales rose in February after falling in January. Global container lifts for Q1 2024 are forecast to rise 1.8% year-on-year by analysts at Shipping Strategy. Add on longer voyages caused by the Red Sea crisis, and the recent spike in freight rates looks to have been inevitable. However, after the shocks to the system caused by all the big liner companies except COSCO diverting voyages from the Suez Canal to the Cape route, the freight market is beginning to settle down. Lines have been busy adding tonnage from the charter market to fill gaps in sailing schedules. This has led to higher time charter rates but not to longer durations, with most period business being for less than year. This either points to optimism (or at least hope) that the geopolitical situation will improve, or accepts that we cannot tell and leaves open the option to extend. The downside to the outlook came from the EU where industrial production fell 3.2% led by falls in mining and manufacturing. The latest DG ECFIN EU consumer confidence index was up 0.6% for March but -15.2 (EU) and -14.9 (euro area) scores point to consumer confidence still being well below the long-term average. Freight rates as reported by Freightos reflect these macroeconomic trends with some clarity. The global average rate per feu was $2,623 as of March 22, down 9% week on week and down 22% month on month, by which date global supply chains had fully adjusted to longer Asia-Europe sailing times. On the north Asia to US west coast route, the decline accelerated in March. As of March 22, rates per feu were $3,727 which was 12% lower week on week and 23% lower month on month. Rates from north Asia to the US east coast via Panama peaked at $6,764 on February 16. The weekly fall since then has been 1%, 1%, 8%, 4% and 10% and the rate is now appraised at $5,284, down 22% from the peak. On the direct China to north Europe voyage, shippers are relieved to be paying 42% less today than they did at the peak of the market, which was $5,492 on January 19. Rates as of March 22 were $3,189, which was 19% lower week on week and 30% lower month on month. For boxes discharging in the Mediterranean, the freight rate peaked at $6,773 on January 19, only to fall by 33% to 4,532 on March 22, which was incidentally a 9% increase week on week, bucking the overall trend. In the Atlantic, westbound freight rates have edged downwards week by week over the last month with an 11% overall reduction from $1,862 to $1,659 on March 22. On the backhaul eastbound route, the Freightos rate assessment fell 22% in the week to March 15 but recovered 2% the next week to sit at $468 per feu compared to $538 four weeks earlier. In April, attention will switch to policy as the EU exemption on liner consortia ends after a lengthy stay of execution since 2009. Alliances are not directly affected, though the president of liner lobby group, the World Shipping Council, Mr John Butler, said in October 2023 that the change in rules would create a period of uncertainty as carriers adjust to the new legal structure. One alliance that will end in 2025 is the 2M between MSC and Maersk; the latter has announced the Gemini partnership with Hapag-Lloyd, while junior 2M partner Zim will seek new dance partners. No doubt the EU will reach for its Herfindahl-Hirschman Index calculator in due course.

Container shipping adjusts to new reality

Liners have come to terms with the loss of Red Sea access

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