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US west coast imports rose in September but only because the shuffling of unloading to east coast ports reversed due to the queues at the Panama Canal. Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy of the National Retail Federation (NRF), told reporters that cargo volumes for the balance of 2023 would be “strong…but not as high as we expected a month ago” after retailers stocked up earlier than usual. Overall, containerised imports to the US were 1.94m teu in September, down 0.2m teu compared to August and down 0.6m teu compared to September 2022. The NRF predicts another 1.94m teu for October then falls to 1.91m teu in November and 1.88m teu in December. These would both be higher than the 2022 numbers, which would be the first time in 2023 that monthly import data exceeded that for 2022, so it remains to be seen if the NRF is still being too optimistic. US consumers are not splurging as wage growth slows, or perhaps they are keeping their credit cards locked up in advance of the holiday season given higher interest rates this year. The Freightos Baltic average freight rate for a 40 foot container shipped from China to the US west coast fell by 16% in the 28 days to October 20, ending up at $1,499. On the China to US east coast route, rates fell 19% to $2,141 over the four weeks to September 22. OOCL reported that revenues for Q3 were down 65% even though volumes were up around 6%, which suggests aggressive pricing from the liner companies in order to fill ships is once again the modus operandi of choice. Lay-ups and period charter negotiations will be up next European Purchasing Managers Indices are stuck at their lowest levels since 2013, with September coming in at 43.4 after 47.0 in August and 48.6 in July. German manufactured goods wholesale prices slumped 4.1% in September continuing a six month streak of falling prices. Lower oil prices were claimed to be the reason, but weak demand is a constant anxiety in a eurozone shorn of confidence as conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East and North Africa bring political and social difficulties to the EU. In line with weak EU economic data, containerised freight rates from Asia to Europe continue to slump. Falling to a low of $917 in early October before recovering to $978 by October 20. They were as high as $1,789 in mid-August. Rates from Asia to the Mediterranean were down 5% on the week and 12% over four weeks to $1,399 on October 20, reversing the gains seen at the end of the last quarter. Average per box earnings on the trans-Atlantic trades have also fallen further. Rates from North Europe to the East coast of North America were down 9% month-on-month at $1,025 on October 20 – half their June value and a fifth of their value at the start of 2023 when they were reported to be $5,507. On the backhaul eastbound route, rates were in September at around $530 per feu but subsequently tumbled throughout October to reach $338 on October 20. After a long downturn, one might have thought that the stabilisation of rates in September this year marked the bottom of the cycle. And perhaps, with global monthly teu lifts back to their pre-pandemic levels, there was some symmetry to the market. However, with 2.5m teu delivering this year, supply growth is swamping the market like never before. With each new megamax ship adding over 20,000 teu to the market several times a month, there is no chance for demand to pick up. Blanked sailings are the short-term answer, with lines cutting ships from loops wherever they can. But it seems inevitable that lay-ups and period charter negotiations will be the next tactics as the liner industry seeks to absorb so many new ships, as scrapping older tonnage cannot offset the behemoths being delivered.

Containers: Brace, brace

The following 662 words might be a tough read for containership owners.

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