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Black swan events have become an increasingly used term in the media term these past few years. Shipping seems to have had its fair share of such events, whether directly involving the industry, as in the case of the 2021 incident which saw the Ever Given block the Suez Canal, or the consequences of other events such as war, pandemic, weather and financial fraud/incompetence. Is this a case of there is more bad news about this century or is it just a case of a lazy media using the term to dramatise a story? Defined as a high impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but which in retrospect appears to have been inevitable, the term dates back to the end of the seventeenth century when a Dutch explorer came across swans with dark plumage in Australia - something previously thought impossible as all previous evidence suggested swans were white. Why are unforeseen events becoming more commonplace in an age when forecasting and analysis have supposedly never been so accurate ? Looking at shipping’s day in the spotlight back in 2021, a massive ship blocking one of the critical arteries of world trade certainly had a high impact. As one of the most photogenic, but mercifully injury free, incidents in recent times, it provided plenty of copy to the media and at least got the man in the street thinking briefly about shipping. Despite plenty of dramatic headlines, the world did not grind to a halt and whilst there was some disruption to supply chains through delays and diversions, things were generally back on their feet in a matter of days. Was it difficult to predict but in retrospect probably inevitable? Weather conditions in the area are well known and the naval architects who designed the ship had probably run endless calculations on the effects of wind coming from all different directions and the ability of the ship to react, so the circumstances of the incident could have been forecast. Hardly a black swan event. Is it just a case of a lazy media using the term to dramatise a story? The latest drama to affect shipping is water levels in the Panama Canal. Having spent so much of the last few years dissecting the impact of global warming and the climate crisis, should this have been a surprise? The covid pandemic is considered one of the great black swan moments of our time, but a global medical crisis was seen as inevitable given the massive increase in travel so far this century. What was perhaps the real black swan event of covid was the reaction of so many governments in their efforts to contain it and the resulting economic and social scars which remain and will take years to heal. Of course, there will always be events which could not be forecast and an overly cautious approach to risk management must not be allowed to stifle progress or entrepreneurial flair. Huge strides in forecasting and the amount of data we have to use in predicting every conceivable outcome are now available and so attributing crises to being black swan events is a bit of a limp excuse most of the time. Almost a decade and a half on from the global financial crisis which brought about the end of bulk shipping’s greatest boom period and precipitated years of pain, perhaps the two things we should try and protect ourselves from are two elements which will always help bring about a shipping crisis: unfettered greed and seemingly endless credit. Both of which are entirely predictable.

Don’t let black swans be an easy excuse

Dealing with the unexpected is part of shipping life, but as our special correspondent considers, many of the shocks we experience are entirely predictable.

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