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UNCTAD said on January 26 that Suez Canal transits were down 39% in the two months to January 19 and that overall freight tonnage shipped via Suez was down 45%. Container shipments through the canal were down 82% in the week to January 19 compared to four weeks earlier. THE Alliance announced on January 25 that it was suspending its Red Sea AR1 service until further notice, following decisions from most of its competitors to abandon the route altogether until security is restored. Independent Chinese operators are said to be offering voyages to Europe via the Red Sea claiming that the PLA Navy is escorting them past the danger zones around Yemen. Meanwhile, the London Stock Exchange Group (ex Refinitiv) says that containerships have sped up as they take the long route around Africa. Average speeds were up to 15.2 knots in January to date, they say, compared to a 2023 average of 14.2 knots. LSEG says that the longer voyages and higher speeds result in 25% higher fuel bills. As the liner industry grapples with its inclusion in the EU’s emission trading system, the increased fuel bill will come with an increased emission allowance burden. That will add to the inflation caused by higher freight costs. Liner demand is performing positively. US containerised imports were up 0.4% in December to 2.11m teu even as Panama and Suez Canal disruption affected supply chains. As the Panama Canal Authority has announced that January transits will be higher than previously announced – 24 instead of 21 ships a day – lines which had switched services from Asia to the US east coast via Suez may now be considering switching back to US west coast voyages or returning to the all-water Asia – US east coast via Panama. Even transpacific freight costs have thus been affected by Middle East conflict. Accordingly, freight rates as reported by Freightos on the North Asia to US west coast were up 36% week on week to $4,027 as of January 26, 150% up on the $1,695 reported at the end of 2023. Rates to the US east coast ended last year at $2,525 but surged to $5,094 on January 19 and accelerated to $6,141 by January 26, 144% up in the year to date. On the direct China to Europe routes, the rises were even higher. Rates to northern Europe were reported by Freightos at $5,481 on January 19, a rise of 245% on $1,590 reported at the end of 2023, though they slipped ever so slightly to $5,481 on January 26. For boxes discharging in the Med, the freight rate peaked at $6,773 on January 19, up 168% on the year end figure of $2,401. The assessment then slid 5% to $6,472 on January 26, but remains elevated given that this number was last seen in mid-2022 during the pandemic. In the Atlantic, the situation has been less volatile. Boxes shipped west from Europe to North America cost $1,169 on January 26, up $3 on the week but down $7 on the year-end number. On the reverse eastbound voyage, costs fell 4% in the week to January 26, reaching $537, still 52% higher than on the year end $565. As tonnage is soaked up by longer voyages, time charter rates have responded well with quoted one year time charter rates for 6,500 teu ships rising by $4,000 a day in January to $28,000 a day while one year time charters for 1,700 teu feeder ships rising from about $9,750 to $11,750 over the same period. We ended our review of 2023 saying that “2024 promises to be a difficult year for the liners, as their executives have admitted when announcing quarterly results this year. Add in some geopolitical disruption and climate related interruptions, and short term planning in global logistics will become as hard as anyone can remember.“ The year has opened with all kinds of headaches but there will be some financial salve for liner executives in the usually seasonal slough of despond that is Q1.

Financial salve for logistical headaches saves Q1 for containers

Box shipping has seen the greatest earnings spurt from the shut-in of the Red Sea

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