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Shipping was never going to be a key issue in the race for the White House. It’s unlikely there will be any tinkering with the Jones Act but both candidates will no doubt pledge to strengthen the navy should their campaign trail swing through what remains of US shipbuilding. An internet search of ‘Donald Trump shipping’ merely leads you to a page detailing the shipping costs of a ‘Make America Great Again’ baseball cap, whilst a similar search for Joe Biden yields the merchandising page for ‘Team Joe’ paraphernalia. As we all know, there is usually a shipping backstory to most political events, but in this most bizarre of years, the outcome is often not what you expect. Twelve months ago, many of us were wringing our hands over the double whammy of an ongoing trade war and the implementation of IMO 2020. Fast forward to August and even with the added crisis of Covid-19, liner companies were forecasting much stronger results, rates on the transpacific routes were at record levels and Long Beach, gateway to the US for so much of China’s exports (including those baseball caps), saw container volumes up by almost 10% year-on-year. IMO 2020 now looks a distant memory and its passing was all pretty seamless, despite predictions it would cost the container industry over $10bn this year in additional fuel costs. That’s only slightly less than the $11bn the current US presidential campaign is predicted to cost. Which represents better value? Whoever wins is almost certainly going to embark on a stimulus programme Unsurprisingly, policy decisions never consider the impact on Akti Miaouli, Monaco’s harbour front or any of the other major gathering places for shipowners. The delight of tanker owners in September 2019 when the US imposed sanctions on a significant portion of the Chinese tanker fleet which sent rates soaring probably didn’t raise an eyebrow in Washington. For the shipping industry however, trying to second guess the impact of changes in the foreign and domestic policy of the world’s largest economy is an important skillset. So what do we need to watch out for once we know the results from the November 3 poll? Whoever wins is almost certainly going to embark on a stimulus programme and that’s got to be good for shipping. Economists reckon that it is likely to be bigger with a Biden win but would have to be funded by increased taxation, which might hamper economic growth down the line. Energy and the environment are always high profile items on the political agenda. A win for the Democrats is likely to see a return to the Paris Climate Agreement and stricter legislation on emissions, issues shipping has been very much focused on in recent years although the industry is still a long way from hitting proposed targets. Events in the US might accelerate that process. The best we can hope for is that ill-conceived and knee jerk regulation is avoided. Another variable is the fate of US crude exports, which have provided a useful boost to ton miles since the 1975 ban on such exports was lifted in 2016. Some analysts believe that a Biden win could see crude production drop, hence affecting exports, or even a worst case scenario that the law allowing exports would be revoked. Even if shipping doesn’t feature on their agenda, whoever occupies the Oval Office for the next four years may have one maritime-related question that will remain unanswered long after their term ends: “Will I ever be joining 10 of my predecessors in having an aircraft carrier named after me?”

Not in his inbox

With the US presidential election imminent, neither candidate has had much to say about shipping, but policy - or lack of it - in other areas will have a major impact on the industry’s fortunes writes our Sspecial correspondent

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