In a damning rebuke to today’s crop of shipping analysts, a vast majority of Splash voters reckon the chances of us finding proof of alien life forms in the next five years is more likely than an analyst getting a five-year forecast correct. The question is one of nine posed in the latest MarPoll, our quarterly survey, which has one more month to run before results are published in the next issue of Maritime CEO magazine.
The question was sparked by a recent cheeky tweet from a new Splash contributing writer (see below). With 200 votes already cast, 89% of respondents believe we’re more likely to track down aliens than get a correct five-year shipping forecast.
When quizzed on the topic at last week’s Maritime CEO Forum held in Singapore, Ralph Leszczynski, global head of research at Banchero Costa, quipped: “Ship analysts, just like economists, can always perfectly explain with hindsight why their forecasts went wrong.”
The survey also looks at IMO 2020 compliance, with a quarter of respondents to date believing more than one in five ships will not be ready for the global sulphur cap. Other issues up for discussion include demo volumes and how the Baltic Exchange goes about disseminating data. Voting takes as little as two minutes to complete and there is no registration. To vote, click here.
Could somebody with more followers than me (not a high bar, I know) do the following poll? Which is more likely:
1. The 5 year forecast of a shipping analyst is correct
2. Within 5 years we find proof of alien life forms
— Mr Prospector (@Prospectorship) January 25, 2019