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What goes around comes around. When bulk oil tankers were first developed in the 19th century, their introduction set the stage for the growth in oil consumption which has eventually brought us to the current urgent green transition as the world tries to move away from fossil fuels. With numerous alternatives now being touted as the solution to the carbon crisis, there remains the question of putting in place the infrastructure needed to get them to where they are needed and, of equal importance, who is going to be first in the queue to get access to them and how they are perceived by the public. Ammonia has been getting plenty of press lately with several orders placed for ‘ammonia ready’ dual fuel bulkers and tankers, the continued development of Australian mining giant Fortescue’s switch to ammonia power at all stages of its supply chain and an increasing emphasis on ammonia as a truly ‘green’ fuel. Transporting ammonia by sea has been a relatively straightforward trade for many years, built on the back of ammonia’s role as a feedstock for inorganic fertilizer which today, according to a recent piece in this publication, accounts for 77% of current annual ammonia use. With only 10% of ammonia currently traded on ships, current seaborne trade is taken care of by the relatively manageable orderbook of 36 newbuildings, but if there is a large scale switch to ammonia as a zero carbon fuel, demand is set to soar and plenty more ships will be needed in addition to a massive investment in shoreside bunkering infrastructure. Is an increase in agricultural product prices as a result of price rises in fertilizer another green cost that the world is willing to bear? Just as with so many green solutions, there are drawbacks in the switch to ammonia. Will the use of ammonia as a fuel see less of the commodity available for the manufacture of fertilizer at a time when global food security is as much of an issue as achieving net zero emissions? If ammonia is to become the source of just 5% of current global primary energy demand, it would require 10 times the current production levels. That will involve a huge increase in production and transport capacity and no doubt increases in price as competition for available supplies intensifies. Is a potentially significant increase in agricultural product prices as a result of price rises in fertilizer another ‘green cost’ that the world is willing to bear? It was over three years ago that Australia’s leading mining companies were divided into two camps as regards future fuels for their shipping requirements - LNG or ammonia. With their vast resources, you can be sure that the shipbuilders, owners and operators of this new breed of ships will have covered all the bases when it comes to both safety and environmental impact. The engine room of a ship is a pretty extreme environment and with ammonia requiring an undisrupted combustion process to produce harmless nitrogen, as opposed to the nitrous oxide which can become a harmful combustion by-product under certain circumstances. Educating the public on topics they have probably not thought of since secondary school chemistry lessons will be an important part of the battle to get not just ammonia, but other solutions accepted. The race to reduce emissions has produced plenty of exciting and worthwhile solutions and proven yet again mankind’s ability to innovate, but we need to look carefully at unintended consequences. Would we have embraced our addiction to fossil fuels in the 20th century so enthusiastically if we had known the long term consequences?

Why ammonia might not win the future fuels race

The technology is in place for ammonia to a front runner as shipping’s fuel of the future. Our special correspondent asks if gaining public acceptance could be more of an uphill battle

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