2024 forecast to be first year in modern history of dry bulk where more tonnage will exit than enter the sector

The minuscule dry bulk orderbook is set to create a series of records in the coming years with few yards willing or able to offer early delivery slots.

New analysis by brokers Lorentzen & Co suggests that next year looks to be the first in three decades of almost net zero growth and the year thereafter the first in modern history of more tonnage going out of the market than coming in. The orderbook for bulk carriers is at only 7% of the existing fleet, a remarkably low fraction.

“Despite the market expected to be strong, demolition of ageing bulk carriers will probably increase, as new regulations will take their toll on the vintage fleet,” the new fleet forecast from Lorentzen stated.

Lorentzen has also given its growth prospects for all the major and minor bulks. Lumped together, it sees growth in dry bulk volumes of 3.1% next year and 2.7% the year thereafter.

Dry bulk’s limited orderbook formed a key plank of discussion at yesterday’s Maritime CEO Forum held at the Monaco Yacht Club, with a full report from the dry bulk session due to be published next week.