Words matter: Net is not zero

Madadh MacLaine, secretary-general of the Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association, is a fan of our lead columnist. Here, she dives into the unacceptable wiggle room some environmental terminology can give our industry.

Andrew Craig-Bennett calling out the word net in relation to zero is spot on. Net zero is a cop out. It’s a buzz word, a fudge. And – most dangerously – it provokes a fiddle factor.

Words matter – we need science-based terminology and solutions. The Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association (ZESTAs) uses the term Absolute Zero as defined by the World Shipping Council in a submission to the International Maritime Organization. Complex equations that eventually bring us to zero may work on a mathematician’s chalkboard but will not translate to climate impacts in the real world.

Obviously, there will be impacts from the components in the absolute zero emissions fuel supply chain. Scope 2 and 3 challenges exist for every market’s climate solutions.

We’ve got one chance in a closing window to get this right. It’s non-negotiable. When discussing zero, we’re not selling trainers or a new type of dishwasher. We’re attempting to prevent an existential crisis. We must apply exact science and engineering. Focusing on a target of absolute zero leads us directly to where we need to be. There is no room for error and no place for smokescreens.

We cannot put a DNA marker on every carbon molecule – it’s too complicated. And even if technologically possible, it would be ludicrously expensive. With a net zero supply chain, you simply cannot know, or prove, where the carbon came from.

We’ve recently seen this with biofuels coming into the European Union. No one could verify the source. Were they first or second-generation? Did they truly come from residual and waste products?

The current methanol madness is a case in point. Methanol is not a green fuel. Dual-fuel methanol engines are sending people down the wrong pathway. Grey methanol will be cheaper and more widely available than green methanol, and therefore will be used in dual-fuel engines. We’ve already seen this in practice, so let’s not kid ourselves that this is going to change.

Grey methanol – which is all that’s available on the market today – increases CO2 emissions by more than 8%. Its well-to-wake emissions have been estimated at 14% higher than VLSFO. Even green methanol emits CO2. This is an example of a dangerous diversion.

Other words that matter are “do no harm”. Shipping interacts with the entire world and all its complex ecosystems in vastly different ways, but our greatest impact is on our oceans – in our ability to harm as well as our ability to do good. Oceans are the most important regulator of atmospheric CO2. Phytoplankton are crucial to slowing climate change, absorbing a massive 25% of the Earth’s CO2 and producing over half of our oxygen. All marine life sequesters around 40% of total CO2, compared to just 10% from terrestrial flora.

Increases in dissolved CO2, much coming from ship exhausts and now scrubber wash water, have increased ocean acidification by 33% since 1850, rising at a rate not seen in millions of years. Ocean acidification is reducing oxygen levels, dissolving coral habitats, creating dead zones and killing plankton. More than 50% of marine life has died off since the 1950s, dying off at a rate of more than 1% per year. The acidity level is expected to reach pH 7.95 by 2045-2050, at which point carbonate-based lifeforms begin to dissolve and the food chain breaks down.

Grey, blue, green, or purple, the CO2 will harm ocean health which in turn impacts climate.

In short, the consequences of business as usual and a confused ‘net zero’ target will spell catastrophe. Ocean health must be front and centre in our fuel and technology solutions pathway, as well as in future policy and regulations.

Absolute zero emissions fuels and technologies are commercially available, do no harm, are fully transparent, only requiring a push from policy and a pull from the market to trigger global proliferation.

Let’s not fudge this. Let’s not encourage a fiddle factor. Absolute zero and do no harm are the real words that matter.