The world’s most famous shipping economist, Dr Martin Stopford, has put a dollar figure estimate on what shipping will need to spend on the global merchant fleet to ensure ships comply with the International Maritime Organization’s 2050 decarbonisation goals as well as handling likely increased trade growth over the coming three decades. The IMO has demanded shipping slash its emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.
Speaking at a Capital Link event yesterday, Stopford, the non-executive president of Clarkson Research Services, said, in what he conceded was a “very crude” estimate, $3.4trn would need to be spent upgrading the merchant fleet between now and 2050, split $2.2trn to ensure tonnage is green enough to meet regulatory goals and $1.2trn to factor in increased global trade.
The huge outlay in fleet upgrades could only be met if charterers come onboard to help shipowners achieve their decarbonisation goals, Stopford said.
An influential study last year from UMAS and the Energy Transitions Commission for the Getting to Zero Coalition put a $1trn to $1.9trn figure on shipping’s decarbonisation bill through to 2050.