From his office in Monaco overlooking the Med, John Michael Radziwill is looking for any signs that China might be changing its stance on covid, something that looks increasingly likely this week.
The famous dry bulk owner, like many of his peers, has been frustrated by China this year.
“China and their economy and covid restrictions, that is the big one, the 800-pound gorilla so to speak,” Radziwill says in conversation with Maritime CEO. There will be no meaningful recovery, he predicts, until China opens up. Until then, Radziwill says dry bulk shipping is waiting around in “purgatory”.
“It’s directionless at present,” he concedes, looking at the largely flat numbers emanating from the Baltic Exchange throughout Q4.
The good news is the sector’s near record low supply. “Markets are on a razor edge,” he claims, “so it does not take much to tip into bullish territory.”
The GoodBulk CEO reckons the sector will be on the road to recovery by Q3 next year. 2023 will be, to coin a footballing cliche during the FIFA World Cup, a year of two halves, according to Radziwill, with a muted first half and a solid second half.
“Gun to the head, I’d say rates will be fairly similar on average for next year,” Radziwill reckons.
As well as GoodBulk, busy Radziwill presides over pool operations at C Transport Maritime (CTM) and investment fund Stone Shipping, which is readying to launch a fifth fund in January.
