Maritime CEO Forum: Geopolitics driving dry bulk towards a super cycle?
Geopolitics were to the fore in the concluding dry bulk session at last week’s Maritime CEO Forum, held at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore. Debate about the likelihood of another dry bulk super cycle divided panellists and delegates alike at the exclusive by-invite-only shipowner gathering.
“There are a tremendous amount of geopolitical challenges,” said moderator Punit Oza, founder of new consultancy Maritime NXT, in his opening remarks, going on to note that geopolitical risks tend to extend tonne-miles and with just 6.5% of fleet on order, and the fleet getting a lot older dry bulk was in a “honeymoon period” on the supply side.
A bullish Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and CEO of New York-listed cape pure-play Seanergy Maritime Holdings, made the case for an upcoming supply-driven super cycle based on the assumptions that war in Ukraine will continue, China is opening up, and interest rates have peaked. He also alluded to the recent container super cycle, something that had come about by limited supply meeting vexed supply chains during the pandemic.
The billion dollar question, according to AJ Rahman, chairman and CEO of Norvic Shipping, was whether or not China would properly come back.
“China has a structural issue, it is slowing down,” Rahman argued, pointing out: “Yes, the numbers coming out are above 2021 and 2022, but if we look at cargo volumes from 2019, then they have actually not gone up.”
Olivia Lennox-King, chief operating officer at handysize giant Cetus Maritime, said that for minor bulks, where China accounts for around 40% of demand, there were signs of “shoots of recovery”.
Su Yin Anand, head of shipping at miner South32, said there was still a question mark surrounding China’s return. A lot of the economic numbers coming out of the People’s Republic were associated with infrastructure investment not consumer spending she pointed out. Southeast Asia remained a bright spot, said Anand, who is also the co-founder of the Captain’s Table, a shipping pitch competition.
The next event in the Maritime CEO Forum series takes place at the Monaco Yacht Club in October while today Splash has launched Geneva Dry, a two-day event taking place in Switzerland next May bringing the entire dry bulk supply chain together.
