The futility of 22 naval ships trying to patrol 2,200 km of Yemeni coastline were once again exposed yesterday with two US-flagged Maersk boxships fired upon by the Houthis as shipping comes to terms with the fact that the Red Sea exodus is here to stay for a considerable time.
Reacting to Israel’s war in Gaza, the Houthis of Yemen – backed by Iranian intelligence and hardware – have targeted around 40 merchant ships in the last three months with drone and missiles, as well as taking one carrier and its crew, the Galaxy Leader, hostage.
The Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake became the latest vessels to be targeted yesterday, with both ships forced to turn around.
According to the US military three anti-ship ballistic missiles were fired at Maersk Detroit. Two were shot down and one exploded just 100 m from the vessel’s starboard.
Container shipping was the quickest sector to reroute away from the Red Sea and the Suez, with some 90% of all boxships heading via southern Africa on voyages between Asia and Europe. According to liner analyst John McCown, who runs US firm Blue Alpha Capital, the Asia-Europe tradelane accounts for 25% of worldwide container miles and with typically one-third longer voyages the change has the effect of drawing in the equivalent of 8% worldwide capacity of boxships and equipment to maintain the same service.
For the tanker trades, Middle East-origin crude flows to Europe have all now started rerouting to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope, though loadings do appear to be continuing normally. Only two transits have been observed via the Bab el-Mandeb since US-led strikes began on January 12, the last of which occurred a week ago, according to new analysis from Vortexa.
The vessel class most impacted by these diversions is suezmax, as this is the class that carries most of these cargoes through the Red Sea on this route. Diverting via the cape adds about 4,900 nautical miles to the voyage and over two weeks in voyage length. This increases tonne-miles for a single voyage by around 70%, according to Vortexa.
Using 2023 data, Vortexa has projected the impact to this vessel class if this rerouting continues. On a monthly basis, tonne-miles for suezmaxes carrying crude from the Middle East to Europe would increase about 130% if transits occur via the cape instead of the Bab el-Mandeb. With the incremental increase from the extra tonne-miles for these specific cargoes, monthly global suezmax tonne-miles would increase by around 10%.
Turning to product tankers, a very hot sector rates-wise at present, Pareto Securities suggests no product tankers look set to use the Suez Canal during the first half of February — and this will imply near-zero middle-distillate arrivals from the Middle East Gulf and India to Europe during that time, something that will require significant stock draws or the need for replacement cargoes.
New analysis has just been published on how the shut-in of the Red Sea is affecting the LNG trades too. Qatar is now shipping all its gas cargoes to Europe via the cape and last week Splash reported on how the Red Sea had no gas carriers in it at all for the first time this century.
For the LNG market, an extended shut-in of the Red Sea route from the Middle East poses a supply risk to Europe, although the price impact will be delayed until Europe’s gas storage has been drawn down sufficiently.
In 2023, around 15.5m tonnes of LNG was sent through the Red Sea from the Middle East to Europe accounting for 12.9% of the continent’s LNG supply last year.
Re-routing vessels through the Cape of Good Hope adds around 12.5 days to the voyage each way at 16 knots – which could require an additional 15-20 vessels to deliver the same volume over the year, Rystad analysis shows.
Give it time.This Houthi agression will buckle.
No chance. Do your research. On 251/24 the Yemen forces hit the US ship escorting these cargo ships and that is the reason they turned around. Their picket line across the Red Sea entrance has got the zionazi collaborators by the short and curleys.
The only option the sadist nations have is to ensure the genocide stops.
every time launches a $20,000 drone, the USA and the U.K. have to fire a $2millon missile to shoot it down.
The Yemen forces have for the first time in history achieved a very effective naval blockade without a substancial navy. Just speedboats, rubber dingys and drones.
Warfare tactics have changed due to new advances in technology.
You must have simpatie with your brothers who are terrorists just keep in mind the forces present in the canal can wipe the Huti terrorists out within days if necessary then you all again dhout genocide.
Applaud the sentiments you are expressing. ZIONNAZIS, I like it.The Houthi strikes have been the most effective and well reported reactions to the N*ZI occupation of Gaza. Hope they keep if up
Lol one morning you will wakeup and Houthi will be wiped off the earth
Correct, USA & Allies are operating on leniency tactics. Adoption of World War one & two blitzkrieg across Yemen will wipe the two penny pretenders in five days; thus putting an end to the nonsensical maritime disturbances in the Red Sea. Their main sponsor can join the warfare fray & gets fried to smithers too.
You are a dreamer. The fascist regime of America and the west are wanting. Not long to go
Don’t call us facists. My family fought against German fascists to keep us free in the 2nd ww. Islam is a form of fascism as it does not allow freedom of thought or actions and needs to be stopped. You need to understand what fascists really are. The term fascists is being used around the world in the wrong context.
We need Israel to end it’s slaughter,
Surely that’s not too much to ask!
instead of waiting for the Houthis to buckle….the EU should force a cease fire in Gaza and end the GENOCIDE by Israel.
Europe will have to choose a side, NOW… is it going to be oil, gas and sea routes from the Arab/ Muslim world……or political pampering of the Israelis.
The fact that neither ship was hit suggests the presence of the various naval assets did achieve something and was not futile.
RUBBISH…..
Had that naval presence being effective, those missiles would NOT have been fired in the first place.
It is the Mullah regime in Iran that is holding Iranian people as hostage and setting fire to the entire region by money of the Iranian people. The problem must be fought from the root ie. remove the head of the snake in Tehran.
You are deluded my friend, still talking like the many victims world-wide of zionist propaganda & brain-washing. U still blaming the ‘Mulla regime in Iran’ and completely ignoring the zionist genocidal regime, which is the ROOT of the entire ME rot. Wake up, smell the coffee, & stop barking up the wrong tree.
Keep on dreaming
I totally agree
Most appropriate solution is to remove your head and the entire western world including America is the axis of evil. Wake up
yeah….
you should start with the snakes in the US & Israel.
This area is in Iran’s BACKYARD, so why are US & UK navy interference encouraged
Free Palestine and The Blockade will end
Convoys are the answer.
They might be but the reason they have not been used is that they require tying up naval vessels that make up a limited pool of such assets. The Red Sea is strategically important but the Bad El Mandeb is also very restrictive in terms of sea room. So how might a convoy help there? Nice idea but not practical.
May help a bit in the short term but for how long can you have convoys? You can’t have military convoys forever, the Houthis have to be stopped!
Ask seafarers if they think convoys are the answer!
The American and the western genocide have to stop. Do not subscribe to these fascist regimes. You must be one of them
You really need to learn some history. You obviously don’t know what a nazi is or who their associates are/were . You are rabid .
End the Israeli Genocide in Gaza. The world demands this, except if you’re a Brit or Yank.
The ships were not hit. But other published stories report the ships did turn around and head south and ran away. So the end result was the same. The ships were carrying US DoD military cargo and by fleeing the area, the rebels accomplished the same net result. The US Flag ships didn’t deliver the cargo. Will they attempt another transit??
Anybody notice we are actually at war over there?? The American legacy media hasn’t. Nor would it seem the US political leadership. But seeing as how our US Secretary of Defense has had some mental lapses of judgement lately due to medical issues he tried to hide from his own staff and the POTUS, none of this surprise people.
Even conservative congressmen in the US are (finally) starting to question what our military is doing. Kinda like even they just woke up after months long activity in the Red Sea involving US Navy and … some … half hearted efforts by NATO allies. Rumor has it that the US Navy has been involved in efforts to “protect” some Chinese box ships. Wait, what?
Chinese container vessels are not been targeted, they are not calling Isreali ports or carrying military equipment. Furthermore they are broadcasting their nationality to the 🇾🇪. Container freigh rates were falling off a cliff, frankly the shipping lines are not complaining and this has been a massive windfall with the huge increase in freight rates…
If y’all keep dealing with Biden administration, he’s going to get you all killed. And for the president and the world treating Israel the way they are. It’s only a matter of time for this world to crumble down. I love our U.S military and most of my family and friends has served, my family knows that our allies in Israel has stood by America for a very long time. Y’all know Biden and his goons does not care about anyone but their selves and the people in this world other than family and friends doesn’t care to notice that if Israel doesn’t stop these terrorists they will come to America to do the same things to us. As a matter of fact we were told that now we have to be careful because there are terrorist already here. Hamas has already said they were going to do the same things to Americans that they have done to Israelis and the Jews. I heard it personally. So beat them terrorists down and don’t let up. My prayers are with you all. Please be careful out there on them waters. Much love to you all and May God Bless you all as well. Stay safe. I’m praying for us all. 🙏🏼✝️🇺🇸🇮🇱🙏🏼
Those buggers are just as heathen as in biblical days with their false and fanatical beliefs. They may have modern technology etc but are still as ignorant as centuries ago hence all the problems. But they are correct in that Palestine should definitely have its own state and be able to self govern and live in peace.
From the river, to the sea…
Herd the Gazan refugees.
Quick question. If suezmaxes don’t use the Suez Canal route, won’t shippers start using VLCCs to go the long way around and rely on better economies of scale? That is what happened in the past I think.
Hamas attacked Israel and murdered innocent people. Israel is Defending itself from another attack like it and wiping Hamus of the face of this earth. They are getting what they did not bargain for and now crying Wolf.