VLCC earnings predicted to more than double by Q4

VLCC earnings predicted to more than double by Q4

In likely his last public report Joakim Hannisdahl, head of research at shipping and offshore specialist Gersemi Research, has come out with a notable buy recommendation for listed oil tanker companies.

Hannisdahl stated in his oil tanker report he is anticipating an inflection point for the sector as early as next month.

Given the current price of crude oil, Gersemi expects OPEC to increase quotas at its June meeting, something the research house believes could be a significant catalyst for crude shipping rates from the third and fourth quarters and beyond. Gersemi also believes global oil inventory net destocking came to an end in the first quarter this year and will contribute positively going forward.

Gersemi is forecasting VLCCs to average $33,000 a day in the fourth quarter this year, up 103% year-on-year and they could reach peaks towards $46,000 a day during the winter season.

In the bullish report, Gersemi is predicting five year old VLCCs to appreciate 25% over the next year to reach $75m.

“We believe share prices on average could rally 50-97% by YE’18 and 87-196% over one year,” the report stated with New York-listed DHT its top pick.

Gersemi’s oil tanker recommendations have returned 27% on average over the past year. This is comparative to a share index with the same shares falling 29% and consensus recommendations on the shares up 6%.

Hannisdahl, who worked at Nordea Markets and Fearnley Securities before Gersemi, also revealed in the note that he has decided to shift his focus towards his own private network and will thus not publish any more significant research reports in the foreseeable future.

“I have consistently and significantly outperformed both the market and consensus over time,” he wrote. “Since 2014, my stock recommendations within shipping have returned 74%. Consensus’ recommendation on the same shares have returned a loss of -52% in the same period, while an index of the shares is down 54%.”

Sam Chambers

Starting out with the Informa Group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine as well as East Asia Editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he pursued a freelance career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia Editor at Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and The International Herald Tribune.

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