What I’d like to see happening in shipping in 2024

We asked Andrew Craig-Bennett for his wish-list for what he would like to see happening in shipping in 2024, and then we asked him to detail a reality check too. Needless to say, there’s quite a divergence between the two.

As I am sure you know, ‘May you live in interesting times”’ isn’t a real Chinese curse. It’s a 1920s Chicago newspaper’s invention. Now it looks as if we may be about to live in interesting times for real.

The editor (he, who must be obeyed) asked me to make a list of what I want to see in 2024, and a list of what I think we will see.

Starting from the top, let’s have a small revision of the Maritime Labour Convention (MLC) to make it quite clear that every seafarer has the right, by law, enforceable in every port, to free access to the internet in port and at sea except during her or his working hours. The actual wording of the MLC on this contains enough waffle for a coach and horses to be driven through it, twice, at full gallop. Let’s see that sorted. Once it is sorted, the union power of seafarers will increase to the point where the unions comprising the ITF will be able to take real care of their members. Yes, I know that’s the real reason that owners and managers don’t want it. Everyone else does.

Next, I was going to repeat my long standing plea for a revision – a major revision – of the Collision Regulations, which would at last at last recognise that commercial sailing ships have been a thing of the past since the 1950s, but on reflection I will scrap that, as, in my dreams at least – and I hope in reality – real sailing ships may be coming back. Real ones, please, with the sort of sail area needed to generate the horse power needed to drive them at commercial speeds – 12 knots to 14 knots. I do not mean greenwash.

No more hurry up and wait in the bulk markets. I mean, really, this is sailing ship practice from two centuries ago. It’s absurd and actually shameful.

Now let’s have an end to dishonesty in the tanker business, which we all thought had done such a good job of cleaning itself up. Just like in the days of the Iran -Iraq war, the shadow fleet of tankers, despite its old ships having very dubious access to repairs, spares and insurance, is having rather few accidents. This is because its manned largely by older officers and crew who are looking to make a pile to retire on, who are happy to get much better pay. They don’t care about revalidating their certificates, thank you, because they don’t intend to come back. Well, who did you think was manning these ships of utter shame? Wake up, people!”

And the big one. I hope that in 2024, at least one big shipowning company – it will have to be a big one, for this – will order a string of nuclear-powered containerships. Because we need them.

Now, what is really going to happen? Despite shipowners everywhere quietly muttering the shipping version of the Roman army’s toast – “Send us a war or a plague and a quick promotion!” – which is of course, “Please may someone close the Suez Canal!”, it isn’t going to happen. If the Houthis think it is, they will be popular practice targets.

Despite all the sturm und drang, the IMO CII and the EU ETS will slot quietly into place. They are well drafted and well understood, and BIMCO and the IACS members have done a good job. The little bit that will become exciting is the bit that I haven’t seen remarked on – and I apologise if I have missed it – and that is the level B, level C, level D, business, with owners of ships trying to stay at the front of the alphabet, whilst their charterers try to shove them down it and over the cliff marked ‘Three years of D and you’re scrap!’ in order to command the ships on their charter to do more damage to the environment than they want to.

Owners will start to take ‘greenery’ more seriously, because not only their customers – who are easily fobbed of with a can of greenwash – but their crews, who are not, will start to insist on it, and the people who will really be under the gun are the shipbuilders, who cannot just change flag and decamp at the stroke of a pen, and who will not only mean it but will look forward to building ships where more value is added in the yard.

The non-shipping media will continue, by popular demand, to show interest in our little industry. We all used to wish that the public cared about shipping, didn’t we? Well, we should have been more careful about what we wished for, because Providence heard that one and has granted it. As usual when a wish is granted, we haven’t got exactly what we had in mind. We should have known that.

Happy 2024.